An Overview of Sports Betting Systems
A sport betting system involves the use of analysis to try and improve the odds in favor of the bettor. Because the sports books use their own systems for analysis and to set the odds, many bettors believe that devising their own systems can help them to win consistently. People also generally believe that no winning system can work for very long because the sports books will adjust the odds accordingly. Systems that tend to be short lived are called “trends” and single events that tend to influence betting one way or the other are called “angles”. Most so-called systems therefore tend to be a combination of trends and angles.
Most computerized systems are being based on one of two methods. The first is a mathematical technique called regression analysis where all the past statistics are combined into multiple regressions and then used to forecast forward trends. Regression analysis can be reasonably accurate but obviously cannot take into account unforeseen future events such as 먹튀검증사이트 an injury to a major player. The other technique tries to use statistics to pinpoint anomalies and thus provide an edge for the bettor. For instance, it is a well-known statistical fact that most point spreads in football betting tend to fall in the 3 to 7-point regions.
People who believe that betting systems are doomed to failure refer to the “law of independent events,” which holds that because each game is a completely independent event, no amount of past data can influence the outcome because the game itself has no memory of wins or losses. For instance, every time a coin is flipped, the chances of heads or tails coming up are exactly 50:50, regardless of how many times it has come up in the past. Moreover, the number of random factors that affect the outcome of the game are too numerous to be factored into any form of mathematical or statistical analysis. At the most, you could say that a study of all the historic statistics will probably lead to a slightly more informed decision. Proponents of betting systems point out that this slight edge is all that is required to win on a constant basis.
Some of the more popular betting systems are described below:
Win and loss progressions. These are two sides of the same coin and the objective of both is to avoid betting too high if you can, and, to bet higher only when you are winning. A popular progression is called the Martingale where you double the next bet every time you lose. The problem with this progression is that you tend to win small but lose big. Moreover, there is a limit to doubling your bet because sports book maximum betting limits will come into play.
Fibonacci series. This was a mathematical series developed by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 12th century where every number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. It has been shown that it is applicable to a remarkable number of situations including DNA analysis and the fine arts. The series goes 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and so on. Under the basic system, you go two steps down with every win and one step up with every loss. A variation on this system means you go one step down with every win until you have two consecutive wins at which point you go down two steps.
Cancellation sequences (Labouchere). Cancellation is somewhat similar to Fibonacci except that the series is different. For instance, if you write down a sequence of numbers such as 1-1-1-1-1-1, the system requires you to bet the sum of the first and the last number as your opening bet. If you lose, you add the number to the end of the series, which will now look like this 1-1-1-1-1-1-2. If you win, you cancel the first and last number in the series and so on. Cancellation sequences are superior to Fibonacci because one win is equivalent to two losses and you can go quite a long way without having to make large bets.